TIPs confirm bond bull

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12 week rolling SPY / S&P (wk av) method better than FRED daily average

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BTC down YoY -27%…liquidity dries up

12 wk X 100 wkma now…very bearish.

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SPY 12wk +1.6%

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Asset Prices Drive Real Economy

A slowing SPY is bad news.

Rolling 12 week change-

Q2 +11.2%

Q3 +6.6%

Q4 +2.7%

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ADP change now 0.2% YoY

below 1.0 is weak

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CMG fails again

CMG rally comes to an end…value rally fails.

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Pause to June….Fed Futures

Parabolic gold +10% wk means a long sideways 3-4 months…

70% pause in April…

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SPY slows…12 week rolling at 2.9%

Last year Jan +2.5% …this year 1.3%.

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TIP up …ROC12 close to 0

Last 6 months speed at 50% compared to Jan last year…

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